Sunday, September 7, 2008

Official Odds on CERN Large Hadron Collider Doomsday Black Hole: 99-1




So, some physicists at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) decided that it might be fun to build a $10,000,000,000 toy called the Large Hadron Collider that shoots particles into each other at speeds which result in temperatures 100,000 times hotter than the sun, with the hope of discovering some new particles, micro black holes, and possibly extra dimensions. Its a sweet idea, to be sure. Theres just one problem: an itsy bitsy teeny tiny weenie meanie little chance that when they turn the thing on this Wednesday, they might create a black hole that eats up our entire solar system. That sure would be a bummer, dude.

Personally Im 99% sure they wont turn us all into cosmic dust. Im so sure, in fact, Im taking all bets at a 99-1 payout structure. You bet $1 that our planet will implode, and if it does, you win $99. I cant really accept wagers larger than $10,000 at this time for various legal reasons, unless you are paying in large unmarked bills.

But in all seriousness, I think we need to consider for a moment one of the reasons it is worth taking risks in science at all. See, we are currently stuck on this planet. We cant get off it and go live somewhere else if our lives depended on it. And thats a problem for the survival of ours and every other species on this planet. Recently I read an article that was discussing the likelyhood of other intelligent species living on planets in other galaxies, and they put the figure at something close to 100%. Given the number of galaxies in the universe (estimated 100-500 billion), the number of stars in each galaxy (500 billion average) and from what we have observed just on Earth, Mars, and the Moon, its almost a certainty that there is intelligent, civilized, technologically advanced life on other planets. So why didnt they ever find us? Playing the the newly release PC game Spore has certainly made me reconsider this question recently.

Sadly, the answer is that its very likely the advanced species never quite figured out how to make it out of their solar system, let alone their galaxy, and they died there. Just with basic rocket propulsion, you can boost around the solar system, but to actually escape the confines of our sun and make it to Alpha Centuari, we need to travel for 4.3 years at the speed of light. Its not possible with any current technology and may never be if we dont dedicate ourselves to uncovering the secrets of the universe. We cant let fear of the unknown stop us from advancing our understanding of physics, or any other science for that matter.

Sure, there is an incredibly small chance the physicists at CERN, no matter how brilliant and well-intentioned they are, made a grave miscalulation, and the mini black holes they seek to produce actually turn into planet eating ones. But if we dont unlock these secrets, and advance our understanding of the universe, our species is doomed to extinction on the floating rock we call Earth. It may not happen anytime soon, and its possible we may kill each other first, but I dont think the dinosaurs planned on a massive asteroid hitting earth either. Getting off our planet is only one of a myriad of problems and challenges that humanity faces, which science and science only can solve. If we want to overcome them, the general public must overcome its fear of science, and of things like stem-cell research, evolution, and high energy particle physics experiments - because these things are essential to a progressive civilization.

Although they are not studying propulsion technology at CERN, the results of their experiments could change they way we look at physics entirely. If the physicists at CERN were able to observe black holes, it would imply that we are actually living in at least 5 dimensions - that there is an entire underbelly to the universe which we cannot see and traditional physics cannot directly explain, but implies its necessary existence. The LHC's main goal is to fill the gaps that currently exist in the Standard Model, the grand theory governing the subatomic structure of the universe. That may mean finding traces of extra dimensions, or a whole new class of supersymmetric particles, or the causes behind dark matter and dark energy.

Filling the scientific gaps would almost certainly include getting a fix on the Higgs boson, which some physicists have dubbed the "God particle." The Higgs is the only particle predicted by the Standard Model that hasn't yet been found, and it could hold the key to understanding why some particles (like protons) have mass while others (like photons) do not. If you understand why some particles have mass and why some do not, you are that much closer to several next generation technologies which have only been speculated about up until this point, only one of which is new proulsion technology. Rocketry is not the apex of proulsion technology, its merely one point along the axis upwards towards travelling at the speed of light.

If you are interested in reading more about this subject, I can direct you for starters to an interview with Michelangelo Mangano, one of the physicists at CERN, who explains why the micro-black holes dont pose a threat to humanity, as well as several other interesting subjects regarding the LHC. The machine has been undergoing test runs and will begin its first real operation on Wednesday, September 10th, although the super high energy tests wont begin until October.

But just in the off chance that something goes wrong, its been fun knowing you all. You can collect your bets on the other side, just make sure to bring a photo ID.

60 comments:

David Lamm said...

Please there is no chance that cern creates a black hole that eats up our solar system. The black holes that are theoretically possible are not self sustaining black holes like the ones that result from star collapse. These high energy collisions occur on a regular basis everywhere in there universe. If sustainable black holes were capable of forming from high energy collisions there would be no stars. Mangano does a much better explanation, but that is the jist of things.

As for the Higgs boson, I'll take a bet it doesn't exist. It is modern physics version of luminiferous aether. God particle my ass. They call it that because without it their whole model makes no sense. Without the higgs nothing has mass. Hopefully the LHC will tear up the standard model and give us new things to think about.

David Lamm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Lamm said...

I forgot to mention how the US Supercollider would have been bigger and more powerful than the LHC. The fall of American science started on the day they canceled it after spending nearly 2 billion.

Our accelerators at Fermi and elsewhere have drawn the brightest minds in physics to our country for the last 50 years. Fermi will still be doing cool things, they just discovered an new freaky particle, but all the glory will go to CERN. At least its nice to see some particle physics in the news, even if its oriented around some irrational fear stoked by people who love to hate on what they don't understand.

ps.
Why can't I edit my posts?

JTankers said...

I have great respect for Dr. Mangano, though I disagree that his work proves safety.

Only a very small number of physicists have studied the safety arguments in detail, and the results are very mixed.

Most of the reviews are linked to CERN, either CERN scientists, CERN Scientific Policy Committee members or scientists requested to comment as a favor to CERN.

Other fully independent physicists including senior Physics PHD Dr. Rainer Plaga wrote a paper refuting safety and proposing risk mitigation measures, currently ignored by CERN.

Visiting Professor of Physics Dr. Otto Rossler is an award winning and famous contributor to Chaos Theory and the founder of Endophysics. Dr. Rossler also refutes CERN's claims that white dwarf and neutron stars are susceptible to fast moving micro black holes, Dr. Rossler contends that CERN's experiment may pose an existential risk to the planet.

Dr. Rossler calculates that creation of micro black holes could be catastrophic to Earth in years, decades or centuries.

Former cosmic ray researcher, California math champion and Nuclear Safety Officer Walter L. Wagner discovered flaws with CERN's safety arguments. He calculates stable strange matter creation (particularly from Lead Lead collisions) and dangerous micro black hole creation has not been excluded and might as likely prove catastrophic.

If you want to learn more about why science can not say with reasonable certainty that Earth will be safe from the Large Hadron Collider, I recommend LHCFacts.org.

Don't get small, get LHCFacts.org.

David Lamm said...

Welcome Mr. Tankersley,

I have to wonder how you found this blog with its massive readership of under 50 people. It looks like you have some sort of FUD robot running around the net posting on this subject. The post is clearly copy and pasted all over the blogosphere and amounts to spam as I doubt the poster has read anything on this site.

I read through your nonsensical babel on your web site, it was nice for a good laugh. What the fuck are you even talking about? Spiritual, moral? Doesn't quantum give a small chance that a dragon flys out of my ass next time I fart. Despite this risk I still feel eating beans in not a moral or spiritual failing of mine.

"But it is the young child – the toddler – who invents benevolence out of nothing because no one in the cosmos is wiser or greater. "
What? You have to be kidding. We are talking about physics here buddy not finger painting.

Keep up the amusing work! Perhaps you will eventually be allowed to give your talk in front of people with physics degrees. I'm sure they could use a comedian to break up their dry talks.

James Jr said...

Hello Mr. Lamm or is it Dr?,

I am a computer programmer but not a robot. I do read before I post.

The letter is from a famous senior physicist I believe has demonstrated a superior grasp on physics.

He is trying to prevent recklessness and foolishisness, no offense. Physics may not be as wierd as you may think, Dr. Einstein had a simpler vision, its called Bohmian (determi istic quantum mechanics).

Read this and tell me what you think:
(Let me know if you don't have access).

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726485.700-quantum-randomness-may-not-be-random.html Quantum Randomness May Not Be Random

For a start, if once again Dr Einstein was correct again (in my mind clearly it appears he was), then Hawking Radiation is wrong, (Reverse HR may be a reality), parts of the safety arguments may be wrong and Earth may not be safe from slow moving micro black holes.

;)

David Lamm said...

James,
Sorry for the confrontational nature of my response. I was a little surprised to see you show up here and was hoping to provoke a response. Glad to have someone to discuss this with.

I read that article on deterministic quantum and did not realize Bohmian had made somewhat of a resurgence since Bell's theory and the long list of confirming experiments. I must admit that the Copenhagen interpretation never really sat well with me. It always served it's purpose as an excellent predictive model, but the non-deterministic aspects implies a serious lack of understanding. Human intuition has nothing to do with physics therefor my feelings don't matter and neither do Einstein's.

I can understand Einstein's dismay over a world that is inherently unpredictable. The very concept seems to negate the purpose of physics. Nevertheless every experiment performed so far leans leans toward quantum mechanics being valid. Check out Space-like Separation in a Bell Test assuming Gravitationally Induced Collapses which showed a Bell inequality violation of 13 standard deviations.

I guess my point was, we will never have absolute certainty regarding anything. That is the road religion travels along. We can only make decisions based on what we observed which up until this point heavily leans toward the classical model.

I guess we will find out tomorrow. I'll have my fingers crossed for you.

ARUPS said...

About the SSC, the superconducting supercollider that david lamm refers to; I have a piece of it in my office. I shit you not. One of my coworkers was given a section in the 80's with the object of determining whether or not photodesorption of hydrogen from the pipe wall, stimulated by the synchrotron radiation of the beam, would ruin the vacuum and render the whole project infeasible. Turns out, the SSC was doomed to failure anyway and the taxpayer was saved a huge pile of money that would have otherwise been wasted.

On to the LHC. First, if it is possible to create particle-like black holes in particle-particle collisions then the process most certainly occurs naturally as, for example, ultra high energy cosmic rays collide with atomic nuclei in the earths atmosphere. In a natural setting, such a particulate black hole will decay via hawking radiation nearly instantaneously thereby posing no threat to ourselves or anyone else in the universe. Now let's examine the case of black holes that might be produced in the artificial setting colliding proton beams at the LHC. The real question is, what is the cross section (that is, probability) that, having created a black hole, another proton from the beam will collide with it before it decays, thereby increasing it's mass and the likelyhood that it will consume more particles? First, though a "black hole" in the sense of an object possessing an event horizon, particulate black holes have negligible gravity. This is because they are generated by packing a lot of mass into a very small space, not by the gravitational collapse of an originally massive object. The answer is: the cross section is zero. There has not been to my knowledge any beam beam type particle experiment that has involved a three body process (the two original colliding protrons, plus the next that would be consumed by the black hole) in which all three bodies originated in the beam. What's more, even if it were possible for the bh to consume a neighbor from the beam, the chance that ANOTHER one would "fall in", thus growing the bh further, is as likely as drawing two royal flushes in a row in a game of poker.

You can all feel safe.
Yes, I am a physicist.
Don't know how you all found your way here.

JTankers said...

No problem.

I thought I read the Bell experiments were disputed.

The jury is still out, but apparently deterministic QM makes the same empirical predictions without some of standard QMs weirdness like requiring faster than light travel (entangled photons are conceptualized as clones, exact copies that do not communicate with each other, etc.).

FYI: The entire web is well indexed in real-time by google. You make yourself visible by the words and phrases you use on your blog.

JTankers said...

By the way, tomorrow is a party and a media event, not a technical milestone.

According to the AP and CERN's Gillies "Full power is probably a year away."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g5nGPtmoUVIJDgehVJ_snD6vDA6gD933D3J00

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